Modelling study estimates impact of relaxing control measures on possible second wave of COVID-19 in China
The study estimates that in regions outside Hubei, the instantaneous reproductive number of COVID-19--the average number of cases generated by a single infected individual during the outbreak --fell substantially after lock down measures were introduced on January 23, 2020, and has remained below 1 since then--suggesting that the epidemic has shifted from one that is expanding rapidly to one that is slowly shrinking [1].
However, mathematical modelling to simulate the impact of relaxing current control measures, suggests that premature lifting of these interventions will likely lead to transmissibility exceeding 1 again, resulting in a second wave of infection.
The findings are critical to countries globally that are in the early phases of lock down because they warn against premature relaxation of strict control measures, researchers say. However, the study did not specifically examine the effect of each intervention, or which one was most effective in containing the spread of the virus.
"While these control measures appear to have reduced the number of infections to very low levels, without herd immunity against COVID-19, cases could easily resurge as businesses, factory operations, and schools gradually resume and increase social mixing, particularly given the increasing risk of imported cases from overseas as COVID-19 continues to spread globally", says Professor Joseph T Wu from the University of Hong Kong who co-led the research.
He continues, "Although control policies such as physical distancing and behavioural change are likely to be maintained for some time, proactively striking a balance between resuming economic activities and keeping the reproductive number below one is likely to be the best strategy until effective vaccines become widely available." [2]
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases ... 040820.php
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPd ... %2930845-X
Modeling done by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington suggests that if stringent social distancing measures are kept in place, the “first wave” of covid-19 disease in the US may subside by mid-June, with a total accumulation of ~93,000 deaths. The IHME states that: “By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.
I find it more than a little unnerving that after a grueling “first wave” of disease, a mere 3% of the population may be infected and thus be (at least relatively) immune to re-infection. I seriously doubt if after the first wave the virus will be “gone”, rather just beaten back but nevertheless broadly if thinly distributed throughout the population and poised for a comeback when social distancing restrictions are lifted. If at that time, 97% of the population remains uninfected, then we are destined for a very significant second wave of infection.
https://www.virology.ws/2020/04/05/infe ... -covid-19/
Οπότε, μέχρι να εγκριθεί εμβόλιο, μάλλον ετοιμαζόμαστε για καραντίνα με περιοδικές φάσης μερικής χαλάρωσης.
Παντού το μείγμα μέτρων θα εξαρτηθεί απο την υπευθυνότητα που θα δείξουν οι πολίτες. Αν πχ μέσα ή τέλη Μαϊού αρθεί η απγόρευση εξόδου, και αρχίσουν πάλι τα ΕΛς να σκάνε μαζικά σε μέρη ο ένας πάνω στον άλλο, θα αρχίσουν να τσιμπάνε τα κρούσματα και θα πέσει πάλι καθολική απαγόρευση.
Σε κάθε περίπτωση, συναθροίσεις τύπου σινεμά, θέατρα, γήπεδα, κλπ εκδηλώσεις, μάλλον τις ξεχνάμε για πολύ καιρό. Με καφετέριες και εστιατόρια δεν ξέρω τι θα παίξει. Ίσως το καλοκαίρι να αφήνουν έξω με τα τραπέζια όχι πακτωμένα. Για μέσα, σε ταβέρνες, καφέ, μπαρς, κλάμπς, το βλέπω απίθανο να επιτραπεί μεσοπρόθεσμα.
