Coronavirus pandemic could have caused 40 million deaths if left unchecked - Researchers looked at several possibilities: the world not reacting to COVID-19; mitigated scenarios, where social distancing takes place, and other scenarios to suppress the spread of the virus, such as testing.
- They found that, left unchecked, the virus “would likely” have caused the deaths of
40 million people this year and could have infected 7 billion people—almost the world’s entire population.
- Their modelling also found that social distancing could halve this impact, but without quick, decisive action, could leave health systems around the world, particularly lower-income regions, overwhelmed.
- The team found that rapidly adopting “proven public health measures” such as testing, isolation of confirmed cases and widespread social distancing measures are “critical” in slowing the virus’ spread.
- “Rapid, decisive and collective action is required by all countries to limit the effect of this pandemic. Acting early has the potential to reduce mortality by as much as 95 per cent, saving 38.7 million lives,” said Professor Azra Ghani, author of the report.
- The report adds: “If all countries were to adopt this strategy at 0.2 deaths per 100,000 population per week, 95 per cent of the deaths could be averted, saving 38.7 million lives. However, if this strategy is adopted later (1.6 deaths per 100,000 population per week), then this figure drops to 30.7 million.”
- Strategies to contain the virus would need to be kept up until treatment is made available, the researchers said.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196496/ ... caused-40/https://edmdigest.com/news/coronavirus- ... -suggests/ 
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