Why China won’t get dragged into Russia’s war on Ukraine China will not let itself get dragged into the Russian war on Ukraine by aiding Moscow or playing a big mediating role, analysts believe.
This comes after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken voiced concerns that Beijing might help Moscow with military equipment as the Russian invasion of Ukraine entered its fourth week.
US President Joe Biden in a phone call on Friday with Chinese President Xi Jinping was expected to warn that Beijing would bear responsibility for any actions it took to support Russia’s aggression, and that Washington would not “hesitate to impose costs”, as Blinken put it.
However,
analysts both in China and the US think Beijing is unlikely to come to the aid of Moscow, given that such an act would plunge the country – which prioritises economic development over other issues- in the middle of what could become a global crisis.
“On the world stage, China appears to be the only friend that Russia has left. But it would be a mistake to overstate the strength of such seeming Sino-Russian friendship,” Allen Carlson, associate professor at Cornell University’s department of government, said.
“President Xi Jinping is highly unlikely to allow China to get dragged into the conflict through providing direct military support to Russia.”
As for Beijing acting as a potential mediator between Moscow and Kyiv – as EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell hopes, for instance – Carlson said it was possible, but it was a somewhat remote possibility.
“The issue that most matters in the conflict for Beijing is not ending the war or bolstering friendships but protecting China’s own interests. So far, it appears that Xi has not yet come to a conclusion as to what those are,” Carlson said.
President Vladimir Putin of Russia was the most high-profile foreign leader to visit Beijing for the Winter Olympics last month. He met Xi ahead of the opening ceremony, when the two sides pledged a “no limits” friendship via a joint statement that also said the bilateral relationship was “superior to political and military alliances of the Cold War.”
Recent US media reports quoted American officials as saying Russia had sought Chinese military and economic aid – as Moscow battles both fierce Ukrainian resistance and a firestorm of sanctions from around the world.
China has not condemned Russia’s military actions in Ukraine nor called it an invasion. Beijing maintains that it recognises Ukraine’s sovereignty, as well as Moscow’s legitimate security concerns regarding Nato’s eastward expansion that should be addressed.
Long Jing, deputy director of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies’ Centre for European Studies, said China has not sat idle – sequestered away from what was happening in Ukraine – but it has a different way of getting “involved”.
“China has expressed its stance very clearly, during bilateral meetings with foreign leaders or in high-profile op-eds. And from these channels, China has openly stated its standpoint and suggestions,” Long said.
“The biggest difference is
China has not tilted towards a certain country, or only listened to one country’s appeals. Rather, Beijing has continuously called all the parties to exercise restraint and return to the negotiation table. I think this is also a way for China to play a role,” she explained.
Meeting US national security adviser Jake Sullivan in Rome on Monday, top Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi presented China as a neutral party to the Ukraine war.
“China has always advocated respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries … China is committed to promoting peace talks,” Yang said.
Washington, meanwhile, has stepped up assistance to Ukraine, announcing US$800 million in new military aid this week while expressing concerns that Beijing would consider directly assisting Russia with military equipment for use in the former Soviet republic.
The Chinese stance has included abstaining from a UN vote demanding Russia withdraw immediately from Ukraine – whereas most other countries have condemned Moscow’s actions as an “invasion”. This has caused many in the West to view China and Russia as allied on the matter.
But analysts also point to the “costs” of Beijing coming to Moscow’s aid. David Silbey, an expert on military history and associate history professor at Cornell University, said China would face a potential global blowback if it decided to help Russia.
“In a cynical great power move, they could supply arms to the Russians to keep the US and the European nations focused on Ukraine and distract them from Asia. But that’s a dangerous game to play, given how fierce the blowback has been to anyone cooperating with Russia,” said Silbey.
That was the view also of a Chinese international relations scholar in Beijing, who requested to remain anonymous because the person needs permission to talk to the media.
“Even if Beijing seems to tilt towards Russia,
China would never side with any party that’s in conflict with the vast majority of the world. The best option is to stay neutral.”
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